A new yellow weather alert from the Met Office comes into force at 3pm tomorrow afternoon (Thursday), and will remain in place until 12pm on Friday - covering much of Cumbria and north east Lancashire. There's also a warning for wind on Friday, and possible snow in northern Cumbria.
Met Office Advisor Kevin Wadsworth said: "We’re not expecting any issues until later on tomorrow, when the next area of rain arrives from the west. During Thursday afternoon and evening the cloud will thicken and we’ll start to see outbreaks of rain developing and becoming heavy at times, especially over the Cumbrian Fells.
"The rain will continue into Friday morning and eventually move away around the middle of the day, although there is a chance it could linger through the afternoon – confidence on this will increase by tomorrow. There is a small chance that we may see the rain turn to snow on some of the higher parts of the Fells and Pennines before clearing, which may give a light covering.
"20-40 mm of rain is expected quite widely, perhaps as much as 60 mm over high ground. As a result we have a Yellow Warning of Rain in force (very low likelihood, medium impact), valid from 15:00 on Thursday to 18:00 on Friday.
"The warning covers much of Cumbria, north east Lancashire and the northern part of Blackburn with Darwen. Also worth a mention is the fact that the south westerly wind will be strong to gale force, reaching severe gale force over high ground.
"It’ll become mostly dry through Friday afternoon and evening, with winds easing a little, but still a strong west to south westerly. We may well see further showers on Friday night. As colder air begins to dig in from the north west, it’s likely that we’ll see the showers turning to hail, sleet or wet snow by Saturday morning. These wintry showers may give a covering of snow on the tops of the Cumbrian Fells and North Pennines.
"It’s all change again, as we go into Saturday night and Sunday, with another weather system bringing cloud, rain and milder air up from the south west. We’ll also need to be aware of the risk of seeing a short spell of snow (mainly on high ground) as the rain pushes into the colder air on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
"I’ve been asked a few times, why some weather systems are named and some aren’t. It’s all to do with the impacts that we expect to see from the strength of the wind."
You can learn more by watching the short video below.
Kevin continued: "As you can probably tell, the weather is in a very disturbed pattern at the moment, with fluctuations between mild/cold, wet/dry, and often very windy. This makes it a constant forecasting challenge, with details likely to change. It’s very important to keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings."
Meanwhile, between 3am on Friday and 6pm on Friday, a warning for wind will be in place.
A Met Office statement reads: "West to southwesterly gales are expected to develop widely across Scotland and parts of northern England during Friday. The strongest winds are most likely to affect the far north of Scotland, particularly the Northern Isles, and here gusts of around 80 mph are possible. Elsewhere, winds are expected to widely gust 50-60 mph, possibly up to 70 mph in exposed locations."
In addition, the northern half of Cumbria could see some hail, sleet and snow at times, from 9pm on Friday until 3pm on Saturday.
Kevin added: "Accumulations of 1-3 cm are possible, mainly above 200 m, although lower ground may see a covering overnight in places. As road temperatures fall below freezing overnight, some icy patches may form, leading to tricky driving conditions, and perhaps some localised disruption. A Yellow Warning of Snow (medium likelihood, low impacts), is in force from 21:00 on Friday to 15:00 on Saturday. The areas affected by the warning are the north of Cumbria and the west of Northumberland and County Durham."
You can keep up to date with the latest weather warnings here.